Nebraska Cornhuskers Numbers Point to Potential Slide

Friday, January 27, 2012

Huskers.com

By Todd Neeley
Nebraska Head Coach Bo Pelini has defended the progress the Husker program has made four years into his tenure. During that span NU has averaged about nine wins a season, has appeared in two conference title games and has gone bowling every year.

The coach hasn’t been a real numbers guy – in fact he has said statistics don’t tell the whole story.

Nebraska’s statistical drop-off from 2010 to 2011, however, has been staggering on both sides of the ball – evidence that this program is at a critical juncture.

It’s especially true when you consider that Nebraska returns no star, NFL-caliber players on defense in 2012 from a unit that struggled mightily. Much of NU’s success on that side of the ball came from the play of linebacker Lavonte David, who more than carried the load in 2011.

Key injuries to corner Alfonzo Dennard and tackle Jared Crick and others were a blow to a defense expected to be one of the nation’s best, and those injuries severely tested Nebraska’s depth.

On offense sophomore quarterback Taylor Martinez showed maturity in his decision making and more often than not didn’t allow the offense to beat itself. I-back Rex Burkhead was a real workhorse and Nebraska’s most reliable player.

NU needs to replace adjectives like “workhorse” and “maturity” with “explosive” and “unstoppable.”

Nebraska was good when it stuck to the ground game, not so good when Martinez was forced into third down and long. And he was surprisingly weak when forced to run, simply because he was more concerned about staying healthy because of a lack of depth behind him.

NU lacked the consistent flash – the go-to game breaker.

The numbers paint a picture of a program on the decline.

From 2010 to 2011 Nebraska failed to show signs of improvement on both sides of the ball.

A revamped offense didn’t match the hype, the usually brick-wall Blackshirts gave up too much ground and found it hard at times to stop anyone.

On offense Nebraska scored fewer points, churned out fewer rushing yards, fewer rushing attempts, saw a drop in average yards per rush and average yards per game on the ground, and scored fewer rushing touchdowns in 2010.

As a whole, Nebraska churned out 635 fewer yards of total offense in 2011, ran fewer total plays, averaged fewer yards per play and per game. Nebraska’s red-zone touchdown efficiency fell from 66 percent in 2010 to 63 percent in 2011.

The Huskers scored fewer points in the first, second and third quarters than they did in 2010, with perhaps the one bright spot coming in the fourth quarter where NU scored 24 more points than it did in 2010.

Much of that, however, can be attributed to a 28-point fourth quarter Nebraska put up in a 34-27 win against Ohio State.

In the passing game Nebraska averaged fewer yards per pass and had fewer touchdown passes – It was an offense that lacked the big play.

The defensive side of the ball may be more cause for alarm.

The Blackshirts gave up more points, more first downs, recorded fewer lost rushing yards, yielded more yards per rush and per game, gave up more rushing touchdowns, more passing yards and more total yards in 2011.

Though pass defense was expected to be Nebraska’s bread and butter in 2011, NU gave up more average yards per pass and per catch, more yards per game through the air, yielded more touchdown passes and more yards per play and per game than in 2010.

The Nebraska defense had a hard time getting off the field.

NU allowed opponents to possess the ball nearly three minutes more per game than it did in 2010, and opponents converted on third down 40 percent of the time, compared to 30 percent in 2010.

Perhaps even more startling was Nebraska’s red zone defense -- NU allowed the opposition to score touchdowns 69 percent of the time, compared to just 45 percent in 2010. The fourth quarter was a tough for the Blackshirts, as Nebraska gave up 107 points compared to just 53 during the 2010 season.

The current recruiting season is vital for Nebraska, especially on defense.

NU loses tackling machine David at linebacker, Crick and Dennard are gone, and Big Red loses defensive coordinator Carl Pelini to Florida Atlantic.

This unit lacks playmakers heading into next season, and not a lot of answers in the three-deep.

The Husker offense should grow with Martinez behind center and Burkhead back for his senior season. To be a conference contender Nebraska will need more big plays from its offense.

Much like the end to the 2010 season, the 2011 Huskers finished with a thud in what was an ugly 30-13 loss to South Carolina in the Capitol One Bowl – for the second-consecutive season Nebraska finished the season weaker than the start.

NU will need to develop depth at quarterback and running back, find ways to get the ball to playmakers like receivers Kenny Bell and Jamal Turner, and stick to the ground game when it’s working. Too often in 2011 Beck clearly was out-thinking himself.

On defense, well, answers are not so easy to find.
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