Super Bowl XLVI: 2011 New England Patriots Match-up Better with New York Giants this Time Around

Saturday, February 4, 2012

By Patrick Ouellette
NFL Writer

The 2011 New England Patriots offense is less heralded than it was heading into Super Bowl XLII, but may match up better with the New York Giants than the high-flying edition.

New England watched the Giants' safeties struggle with its downfield passing attack during the final game of 2007 and its game plan ended up revolving around the idea that it could burn New York deep. The rest is history, as the Giants never gave Tom Brady enough time to get the ball to Randy Moss, Jabar Gaffney or Donte Stallworth.

The Patriots seem to be in better position to handle the Giants' defensive line this time due to the nature of their offense. Back in November, they tried to overcompensate for the New York pass rush by using mainly two and three-receiver sets. Brady was uncomfortable not being as aggressive and the Giants played well in the middle of the field, intercepting and sacking him twice.

With their offensive line healthy and playing as well as it has played all year, the Patriots should be in position to use their up-tempo, precision-based offense to not allow the Giants' line to get consistently up-field. If the line can keep the likes of Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora at bay for long periods at a time, Brady will have his fair share of matchups to choose from.

For all the talk about Rob Gronkowski’s ankle and the impact on the offense, Wes Welker has been under the radar considering he's a 120-catch receiver. Welker has proven he’s the toughest receiver to defend for New York with crisp underneath routes that don’t give the Giants time to pressure Brady. The evidence? He had nine catches for 136 yards during this season’s meeting and had a Super Bowl record-tying 11 catches in Super Bowl XLII.

As critical as linebacker Michael Boley and safety Antrel Rolle are for the Giants’ blitzing schemes, neither can cover Welker with any consistency. How often Brady finds Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch will help determine whether the Giants double-team Welker. A particularly effective play for the Patriots all season has been placing Welker next to either a tight end or receiver and forcing the opponent to choose between Welker underneath and the streaking player heading downfield.

Health is obviously a huge part of how effective Gronkowski will be on Sunday, but he also proved that the Giants have trouble covering him in the seam in November as he caught eight passes for 101 yards. His high-ankle sprain is a serious injury that will play an important part in the Giants' coverage schemes.

If he’s able to push off of the ankle, the Patriots' offense becomes that much more dangerous. In the instance he plays poorly, New England becomes more predictable and will look to get Hernandez, who had 79 catches in 2011 but is a worse blocker than Gronkowski, involved.

Regardless of the target, Brady will need to make quick decisions to avoid the Giants' pass rushers dictating the flow of the game. The two-time MVP will also need to be more accurate than he was during the teams’ last meeting, when he threw multiple passes into the ground and out of receivers’ reach. Reports out of New England practice this week stated that Brady was sharp and Bill Belichick had the Patriots playing in heavily-heated conditions.

The Patriots are likely to try keeping the Giants off balance with a no-huddle offense and conditioning will play a major part in this contest. For a team that’s had issues in the fourth quarters of playoff games dating back to 2001, this shows that Belichick has looked at previous successes and failures from every angle.

A huge X-factor for the New England could be the forgotten man, Chad Ochocinco. New England clearly likes Ochocinco’s potential against New York’s secondary or Brady wouldn’t have targeted him five times back on Nov. 6.

Whether he’s learned enough of the offense to even gain snaps on Sunday remains to be seen, but he’s the one Patriot receiver who has the potential to do damage outside the numbers. One scenario that makes sense for Ochocinco to be on the field would be play-action, where the Giants dare the Patriots to beat them downfield.

Look for New England to trust their offensive line more while utilizing their receivers and tight ends more than their previous meeting in this highly-anticipated Super Bowl rematch.